Governing from the Precarious Middle

Photo by Casey Horner on Unsplash

With the initial results of the Georgia run-off elections for U.S. Senate coming in today, it appears Democrats are on the verge of taking control of Congress. Rev Raphael Warnock has been declared the winner over Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler by most news outlets, and although the race between Jon Ossoff and David Perdue is still too close to call (and will almost certainly require a recount) it appears the Democrat will prevail by a thin margin -- a victory that will, no doubt, be denied, contested in the courts, and de-legitimized in right-wing media.

If the result holds, what I hope does not happen next is a surge of left-leaning policies. This is exactly what many Democrats want and Republicans fear -- an ideological push from the far side of the party. Indeed, it's exactly what usually happens when a single party takes control of the Presidency and both chambers of Congress. It's what Trump did in 2016. It's what Obama did in 2008. It's what Bush and Clinton did. It's hard for either party to resist the power of single-party control -- to unleash the kinetic energy built from the frustration of being the minority, to placate the desires of the party's most loyal adherents, to enact revenge for the other side's past obstreperousness, to undo the other party's achievements.

I truly hope this doesn't happen this time. I hope Biden is the right leader, following one of the most politically divisive eras ever, to lead from the center. To keep the far left of his party at bay. To recognize that the vast majority of Americans in the political middle want elected leaders to enact a centrist agenda -- neither left, nor right. This is what the teeter totter of American politics, where elections are decided 50.01% to 49.99%, should be teaching us. Instead, both parties seem inclined to interpret the slimmest of victories as "mandates" for their side, rather than a desperate cry from an electorate who desires a moderate agenda, sensible policies we all agree on, and real progress on our most intractable challenges.

Not only is leading from the center the moral and ethical thing to do, but it is politically wise as well. Failure to do so will only result in backlash. Democrats under Clinton lost both the House and Senate in the 1994 mid-term elections. Republicans under Bush lost both the House and Senate in 2006. Democrats under Obama lost the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014. Republicans under Trump lost the House in 2018 and seem poised to lose the Senate in 2020. The pendulum of party control swings very predictably. History suggests the Democrats are likely to lose both the House and Senate in the 2022 mid-term elections. While such a prospect may be interpreted by some as all-the-more reason to enact a Democratic agenda now, during this two-year window when they have the chance, another approach, perhaps a more successful one, would be to govern from the middle. To prevent the backlash in the first place.

However, in today's political climate of polarization and alternate media realities, it's not clear a centrist agenda is even possible. In the news-as-entertainment vicious media cycle we live in, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Charles Schumer and Nancy Pelosi are the enemy. Anything they do will be characterized as "socialism." They will be demonized every day until the next election, just as Trump was by Democrats. Nothing catalyzes your base to take back power like a good villain. Fear is our most activating emotion.

So while I'm not optimistic -- either that Biden can keep Democrats in the political center, or that Republicans will accept small compromises on that middle ground -- I remain hopeful that it is possible. That we've seen over the last four years what happens when partisanship is taken to its extreme. That the country and our leaders will recognize the need for reconciliation, not revenge.